2011 Should Draft v3.0

Midseason Content:

Positional rankings: c | 1b | 2b | 3b | ss | of | p

Top 100 overall: 1 - 100

2011 "Should Draft" Version 3.0
Selection	Drafting Org	Player	Position	Year	School/Team
1:1 (1)	Pirates	Anthony Rendon	3b	Jr.	Rice Univ.
For the third straight "Should Draft" Rendon is our choice at 1:1. A five tool talent with the potential to be a true impact talent in the box and on the field.
1:2 (2)	Mariners	Gerrit Cole	rhp	Jr.	Univ. of California - Los Angeles
Cole brings three plus or better "now" offerings with a chance for three plus-plus offerings in the future. There have been recent production hiccups, with the UCLA ace struggling some down the stretch. But the opportunity to line-up King Felix, Pineda and Cole in the rotation by late 2012 is way to good to pass-up.
1:3 (3)	Diamondbacks	Sonny Gray	rhp	Jr.	Vanderbilt Univ.
Starling and Hultzen slotted in here for prior "Should Drafts", but Gray gets the nod off the strength of his fastball/curve combo, which is second only to Cole's fastball/slider in 1-2 punches for this draft class. His change-up has been under-utilized, but he has shown some feel for the pitch in the past and last night turned over several that would grade above-average on the 20/80 scouting scale. He has front-end upside with a safety net as a shutdown closer.
1:4 (4)	Orioles	Dylan Bundy	rhp	Sr.	Owasso HS, Owasso, Okla.
Bundy was the pick for Baltimore in our first "Should Draft" and again finds his way to the orange and black. He is the top arm on our board at this point, and is advanced enough to start at A-Adv. if Baltimore feels comfortable moving him quickly. We do have some concern as to his past workload and whether his nasty stuff will remain quite as nasty on shorter rest and over a longer season. But despite his six-foot frame, he's well put together, renown for his physicality and is mature in his approach beyond his years. His brother, Bobby, is currently a starting pitcher at A-Adv. Frederick.
1:5 (5)	Royals	Derek "Bubba" Starling	of/rhp	Sr.	Gardner Edgerton HS, Gardner, Kan.
The rumor mill has Kansas City focused almost exclusively on college arms, but Starling was an easy choice for us. Apart from him being a local talent, he's the top player on our board and one of the truly elite talents in the draft. He has a chance to hit for average and power while providing above-average defense in center field.
1:6 (6)	Nationals	Danny Hultzen	lhp	Jr.	Univ. of Virginia
Hultzen is an advanced college arm with legit mid-rotation stuff and a chance to hit his ceiling as a #2 starter. He'll show a fringe plus-plus change-up to go along with an average slider and above-average 91-93 mph fastball. He could be ready for Major League action by the end of 2012, putting him on track to arrive around the same time as uber-prospect Bryce Harper. If Strasburg progesses through rehab in a timely manner, D.C. could get interesting very quickly.
1:7 (7)	Diamondbacks	TaylorJungmann	rhp	Jr.	Univ. of Texas
Jungmann comes with a long track record of success as a three-year weekend starter for the Longhorns. He has built upon his prior success this spring by smoothing his mechanics some and gaining more consistency in his power slurve and change-up (both potential plus pitches). Paired with Gray, the Diamondbacks get two top college arms with a chance to help out the big club within the next two years.
1:8 (8)	Indians	Daniel Norris	lhp	Sr.	Science Hill HS, Johnson City, Tenn.
Norris boasts a slow 1-to-7 curve with big depth and hard bite, reminiscent of Clayton Kershaw's impressive breaker. He can bump 95 mph with his fastball and also brings one of the more advanced change-ups among the prep arms in the draft class. Cleveland will likely be looking primarily at college arms, but Norris and his front-end upside would be our pick here.
1:9 (9)	Cubs	Archie Bradley	rhp	Sr.	Broken Arrow HS, Broken Arrow, Okla.
Bradley won't be cheap, but he gives Chicago another big power arm in the vein of Wood, Prior and Zambrano. Bradley could end-up with a plus-plus fastball and curve if everything clicks, and is built for the long haul.
1:10 (10)	Padres	Trevor Bauer	rhp	Jr.	Univ. of California - Los Angeles
Bauer has been the Padres's pick in each of our first two "Should Drafts" and once again makes too much sense to pass-up here. His tendency to work up in the zone is less likely to hurt him in San Diego than it might be elsewhere, and as the best performance arm in the draft class he's an easy choice at 1:10.
1:11 (11)	Astros	Jed Bradley	lhp	Jr.	Georgia Tech
Bradley bounced back from a couple of rough starts in last night's ACC Tournament match-up against NC State, showing a low-90s heater that climbed to 95 mph and a good change-up. He is still inconsistent with his slider, but his delivery is among the best in the class and his durable build contains projection -- translating to mroeo strength and potentially a bump in stuff across the board. He's a potential #2 with a reasonably high floor.
1:12 (12)	Brewers	Francisco Lindor	ss	Sr.	Montverde HS, Montverde, Fla.
Lindor gives the Brewers an up-the-middle defender and one of the best make-up kids at the top of the draft. He is a solid, safe pick with some upside if the hit tool comes through (and we think it will). He isn't a thumper, but low- to mid-teen homerun output isn't out of the question, and his strongest supporters will tell you he can hit 20+ once he fully matures.
1:13 (13)	Mets	Matt Barnes	rhp	Jr.	Univ. of Connecticut
Barnes helped his cause by finishing strong and did a better job towards the end of the year getting his upper and lower body to work in synergy through his motion. His fastball velocity spiked in May, and he has enough projection remaining to give comfort that added strength will help counteract the effects of throwing on shorter rest. All three of his secondaries has above-average potential.
1:14 (14)	Marlins	Jose Fernandez	rhp	Sr.	Alonso HS, Tampa, Fla.
Fernandez gives the Marlins a young power arm with a hard slurve that could continue to grow into a true plus offering. He should be signable and scores high in the probability department with a closer fallback.
1:15 (15)	Brewers	Tyler Anderson	lhp	Jr.	Univ. of Oregon
Unlike Barnes, Anderson has stumbled some in May, losing his normally solid command and running into way too many barrels. He's a true five-pitch arm that projects average or better with all of them and sees his tick above-average stuff play-up due to the deception in his motion.
1:16 (16)	Dodgers	Kolten Wong	2b	Jr.	Univ. of Hawai'i
With uncertainty surrounding the available funds for this pick, we have gone "safe" in all three of the "Should Drafts", popping the Hawaiian hit machine in each instance. Wong is one of the best pure hit tools in the draft and has improved his defense greatly at second base.
1:17 (17)	Angels	Henry Owens	lhp	Sr.	Edison HS, Huntington Beach, Calif.
Owens is a local kid with big projection and "now" stuff that looked sharp this spring. His curve is a big breaker and the fastball could be sitting 93-96 when all is said and done. He uses his long limbs to create tough angles and gets excellent plane on his offerings, mixing in solid deception, as well.
1:18 (18)	Athletics	George Springer	of	Jr.	Univ. of Connecticut
Springer was discussed earlier with the Brewers's picks and again with the Angels and Dodgers, but despite his improved strikeout rate we still have concerns about future contact rate. In any event, he can't drop any lower than this, for us, and the toolsy outfielder could bring some much needed athleticism to the A's system.
1:19 (19)	Red Sox	Blake Swihart	c/of	Sr.	Cleveland HS, Rancho Rio, N.M.
We had the Red Sox lined-up with Archie Bradley in each of the first two "Should Drafts", but with him coming off the board earlier this time around, Swihart makes the most sense, to us. He is a potential impact bat that could really thrive in a hitting environment like Fenway. Though he is still developing as a backstop, there is plenty of athleticism to work with, not to mention one of the better arms in the draft class.
1:20 (20)	Rockies	Alex Meyer	rhp	Jr.	Univ. of Kentucky
Meyer came off the board in the top ten the last time around, but has been squeezed down the board this time through no fault of his own. He would be an excellent value here, with two potential plus to plus-plus future offerings in his mid- to upper-90s fastball and hard upper-80s slider. He is still trying to get his big body to repeat on a consistent basis, and if everything falls into place he could end-up one of the more dominant arms in the class.
1:21 (21)	Blue Jays	Dillon Howard	rhp	Sr.	Searcy HS, Searcy, Ark.
For the second straight "Should Draft", the Jays end-up with Howard -- owner of a heavy fastball and one of the better change-ups you'll find at the prep ranks. His spring was more "solid" than "outstanding", which gives the Jays a shot to grab a good bodied, hard-thrower this late in the 1st Round.
1:22 (22)	Cardinals	Taylor Guerrieri	rhp	Sr.	Spring Valley HS, North Columbia, S.C.
The South Carolina commit dropped a little lower in "Should Draft" v2.0, but finds his way back to the Cardinals today. He's a projectable power arm that could create one of the more impressive power trios in the minors along with Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez.
1:23 (23)	Nationals	Andrew Susac	c	So.	Oregon St. Univ.
After seeing Swihart drop to them the last two "Should Drafts", the Nats end-up with a more useful near-future piece in OSU's Andrew Susac. While his hands will need to soften some, he is already a quite capable defender with big arm strength and raw power at the plate. He has shown an ability last summer and this spring to square-up balls with more consistency and, again, could move quickly enough to make D.C. an exciting town in a couple of years.
1:24 (24)	Rays	Javier Baez	inf	Sr.	Arlington Country Day Sch., Jacksonville, Fla.
In a bit of gamesmanship we had Tampa roll the dice last time around and pass on Utah slugger CJ Cron with the idea that he would likely slide six more slots to them again at 31. We still like those odds and strike here with Javier Baez, adding a power bat that should slot in to either third base or second base, long term. He'll join a very strong core of young position prospects in the low minors that should form the nucleus of the next wave of Rays standouts, including 2010 draftees Josh Sale, Drew Vettleson and Justin O'Conner.
1:25 (25)	Padres	Cory Spangenberg	of/2b	So.	Indian River St. Coll. (Fla.)
We reach down our board a little bit here to grab a good hit tool paired with plus speed and a chance for solid center field defense. Jackie Bradley, Jr., Josh Bell, Brandon Nimmo, Brian Goodwin, and Derek Fisher were all considered here, but ultimately Spangenberg's speed and slightly more advanced bat made for the best fit. Currently an infielder, he'll need to convert to the outfield -- a defensive question mark that has him lower on our board than he will likely go on June 6th.
1:26 (26)	Red Sox	Joshua Bell	of	Sr.	Jesuit Coll. Prep., Dallas, Texas.
We had Hedges slotted here last week, but with Swihart already nabbed with the Sox first pick, they can go after one of the best pure bats in the prep ranks in Dallas outfielder Josh Bell. Bell's future tools have been downplayed some due to unrefinement -- for example his arm strength with play better than it currently does once he cleans-up his arm action some. Likewise, he isn't a burner but will make his way around the bases much more efficiently once he realizes some clean-up in mechanics/lines with pro instruction. Bell and Swihart would join the likes of Garrin Cecchini and Sean Coyle in the low minors, putting Boston on par with the young talent in Tampa.
1:27 (27)	Reds	John Stilson	rhp	Jr.	Texas A&M Univ.
Stilson showed enough this year to earn a shot to start at the next level, and would fit well in Cincy's system. Stilson has the added benefit of closer experience at the collegiate level, so the Reds could fast track him if they need help in the pen later this summer. His fastball is heavy with low- to mid-90s velo, and he drops in a plus change-up, as well.
1:28 (28)	Braves	Jackie Bradley, Jr.	of	Jr.	Univ. of South Carolina
The spring could not have gone much worse for the preseason top collegiate outfielder on our draft board. After starting the season strong, JBJ got a little yank-happy and lot the swing plane that kept his barrel in the zone for so long and made him such an effective and adaptive bat. He is advanced, defensively and has plenty of arm for center field. The Braves would be wise to grab him here, as a return to his prior form could make him a legit #1 or #2 hitter capable of providing average or better defense up-the-middle in the near future.
1:29 (29)	Giants	Robert Stephenson	rhp	Sr.	Alhambra HS, Martinez, Calif.
Stephenson may have done enough this spring to come off the board earlier, and there is no way we let him fall past here (obviously we like the fit, as he has slotted into 1:29 now in each of the last three weeks). A big and projectable arm with a future plus breaking ball -- sounds like a Giants arm to us.
1:30 (30)	Twins	Brandon Nimmo	of	Sr.	East HS, Cheyenne, Wyo.
Nimmo is a highly athletic outfielder that projects to hit for average and power. The price tag is believed to be upwards of $2 million, but the Twins need an impact outfield bat in the system and both Hicks and Revere are looking more and more like slashers than mashers. CJ Cron received serious consideration here, as well.
1:31 (31)	Rays	C.J. Cron	1b	Jr.	Univ. of Utah
Cron fills a systemic need and could provide a much needed power bat in Tampa as soon as late 2012. The Utah thumper has at least 70 raw power on 20/80 scale, and while there is some length in the swing he has had absolutely no trouble barreling balls on a regular basis. He is one of the top collegiate bats in the draft and would be receiving top 10 consideration if he played a more valuable defensive position.
1:32 (32)	Rays	Hudson Boyd	of	Sr.	Bishop Verot Cath. HS, Ft. Meyers, Fla.
With young arms filling out the system from top to bottom, Boyd makes perfect sense as the next in a new crop. He has loud stuff, including a low- to mid-90s fastball with armside life and a 12-to-6 curve with hard late bite. Command has been an issue, periodically, but he handles his big body well and should have no trouble working to at least average Major League command as he continues to refine.
1:33 (33)	Rangers	Trevor Story	ss	Sr.	Irving HS, Irving, Texas
Story is the obvious choice here, as the Rangers clearly have a systemic need for impact shortstops, right? In all honesty, Story's import comes in his blend of tools, which include a bat that could play anywhere in the infield outside of first base, and enough arm for the left side and athleticism to stick up the middle. In short, he'll be there if any of the other up-and-coming shortstops falter, but more importantly has the tool box he needs to shift to second base or third, if that's what's needed in the future.
S1:1 (34)	Nationals	Anthony Meo	rhp	Sr.	Coastal Carolina Univ.
Power arm with potential to move quickly to Bigs as a relief arm. Starter potential but inconsistencies in stuff/command and limited arsenal.
S1:2 (35)	Blue Jays	Andrew Chafin	lhp	Jr.	Kent St. Univ.
Like Meo, a potential power-armed starter off top two offerings and body, but lacks third pitch. Also, limited late season action some concern after TJ surgery in '10.
S1:3 (36)	Red Sox	Josh Osich	lhp	Jr.	Oregon St. Univ.
Made big strides this spring, post-TJ surgery. FB velo up to 91-94 mph and CH flashes above-average. Limited use of SL, still, but was above-average in past. Mid-rotation upside.
S1:4 (37)	Rangers	Kyle Winkler	rhp	Jr.	Texas Christian Univ.
A DSS favorite, Winkler has a reliever's body but has shown starter stuff late into the late innings this year. Big game pitcher with mound presence.
S1:5 (38)	Rays	Mikie Mahtook	of	Jr.	Louisiana St. Univ.
Likely to go much earlier in the actual draft, Mahtook shows solid tools across the board but game may not be as refined as hot start portended.
S1:6 (39)	Phillies	Derek Fisher	of	Sr.	Cedar Crest HS, Lebanon, Penn.
Less athleticism than Trout, but could likewise fall farther than he should due to difficulty to scout this spring and assumed strong commitment to UVA.
S1:7 (40)	Red Sox	Tyler Beede	rhp	Sr.	Lawrence Academy, Groton, Mass.
Advanced prep arm with late-1st Round stuff. Commit to Vandy could push teams away early on. Impressive secondaries for high schooler.
S1:8 (41)	Rays	Matt Purke	lhp	So.	Texas Christian Univ.
We decided to buy our ticket to the Purke lotto here. As a draft-eligible sophomore there is plenty of leverage to demand a seven-figure bonus, but the payoff could come if medicals show a good chance the "old stuff" will eventually return.
S1:9 (42)	Rays	Joe Panik	ss	Jr.	St. John's Univ.
Building a good draft portfolio means balancing ceiling and probability. Panik is a stabilizer -- meaning he offers probability to a draft class without sacrificing solid upside.
S1:10 (43)	Diamondbacks	Brian Goodwin	of	So.	Miami-Dade Coll. (Fla.)
Goodwin profiles as a potential future center fielder, with a chance to hit for average and with some pop. His tool shed could stretch five-wide if everything develops as it could.
S1:11 (44)	Mets	Brad Miller	inf	Jr.	Clemson Univ.
Miller is not the most exciting pick, but he has a long track record of hitting and will grow into potentially average power as he finishes filling-in. He's a second basemen at the pro ranks.
S1:12 (45)	Rockies	Austin Hedges	c	Sr.	JSerra HS, San Juan Capistrano, Calif.
Hedges is a wild card in that his supposedly strong college commit could scare some teams off, but the skill set is easily a mid- to late-1st Round package. Best defense and catch-and-throw backstop in the draft; could hit for average.
S1:13 (46)	Blue Jays	Travis Harrison	of/1b	Sr.	Tustin HS, Tustin, Calif.
This was a bit of a reach on our preference list, but Harrison adds needed power to Toronto's draft portfolio. He's likely a first baseman, long term.
S1:14 (47)	White Sox	Zach Cone	of	Jr.	Univ. of Georgia
Cone has had a disappointing summer/spring, from a production standpoint, but remains a huge upside play with plus defense/power profiling well to center field. There is clean-up to be done on the offensive side, but nothing ML development teams can't tackle.
S1:15 (48)	Padres	Joe Ross	rhp	Sr.	Bishop O'Dowd HS, Oakland, Calif.
Ross should have gone much higher and we had no trouble pegging him a Padre at 48 overall. Relatively clean mechanics and front-end upside, despite inconsistencies last summer and this spring.
S1:16 (49)	Giants	Michael Fulmer	rhp	Sr.	Deer Creek HS, Edmond, Okla.
Fulmer was perhaps our largest HS helium arm this spring, just outside our preseason Top 300 and likely in sandwich round consideration when we publish our final preference list. His FB velo is now low- to mid-90s with a developing SL. He'll also flash a CH and CB.
S1:17 (50)	Twins	Sean Gilmartin	lhp	Jr.	Florida St. Univ.
Gilmartin finally put everything together this spring and gave evaluators the consistent stuff they have been waiting on. He's a four-pitch arm with good command and mid-rotation upside. He is exactly Minnesota's "type" and it would not be a shock to see him off the board to them in the 1st.
S1:18 (51)	Yankees	Jake Cave	lhp/of	Sr.	Kecoughtan HS, Hampton, Va.
S1:19 (52)	Rays	Dwight Smith,Jr.	of	Sr.	McIntosh HS, Peachtree City, Ga.
S1:20 (53)	Blue Jays	Jorge Lopez	rhp	Sr.	Academia de Milagrosa, Cayey, P.R.
S1:21 (54)	Padres	Dillon Maples	rhp	Sr.	Pinecrest HS, Southern Pines, N.C.
S1:22 (55)	Twins	Charlie Tilson	of	Sr.	New Trier HS, New Trier, Ill.
S1:23 (56)	Rays	Johnny Eierman	of/2b	Sr.	Warsaw HS, Warsaw, Mo.
S1:24 (57)	Blue Jays	Tony Zych	rhp	Jr.	Univ. of Louisville
S1:25 (58)	Padres	Kes Carter	of	Jr.	Univ. of Western Kentucky
S1:26 (59)	Rays	Kyle Gaedele	of	Jr.	Valparaiso Univ.
S1:27 (60)	Rays	Julius Gaines	ss	Sr.	Luella HS, Locust Grove, Ga.